With all the focus on Monday’s ballot to determine the Labor leadership the media has been weighing up the pros and cons of two options: Julia Gillard or Kevin Rudd winning and being Prime Minister. However there is a third, much more explosive option which could have lasting repercussions for the ALP.
This option is so explosive it’s almost nuclear, it’s the weapon of mass destruction of politics in the Commonwealth Parliament and it’s not out of the question, however unlikely it might be.
Australians clearly disapprove of Julia Gillard’s leadership as Prime Minister, however they clearly approve of Kevin Rudd even giving him a higher approval rating than Tony Abbott, let alone Julia Gillard. Australians also clearly disapprove of this Labor government as it lags way behind in all of the polls. Nobody disputes that if an election were to be held tomorrow Labor would be sent to the political wilderness for a generation.
So what might happen that is so explosive and so destructive that everything would change forever ?
Here’s the hypothetical. The ballot for the Labor leadership is to be held at 10am on Monday 27th February 2012. In this ballot there are two contenders, the incumbent Julia Gillard and the come back popular ex PM Kevin Rudd. The ballot may take an hour or more, however all reports suggest that despite the wide popular support for Kevin Rudd amongst the public, the Labor caucus will most likely choose Julia Gillard to remain as Prime Minister.
If Julia Gillard wins then Kevin Rudd is just another back bencher, destined to stay there unless something extraordinary happens. This leaves us with a massively unpopular Prime Minister, a deeply unpopular minority government and the sympathy support for Kevin Rudd will increase his public support to even higher levels.
Kevin Rudd has a political ThermoNuclear bomb and Tactical Nuclear Weapon. He could do one of two things. Both would have the potential to bring down the Government and neither would impact his public support.
The Tactical Nuclear Weapon
Firstly he could resign the Parliament effectively immediately forcing a by-election in Queensland which Labor could possible lose. This would be the tactical nuclear weapon. However what would happen with a hung parliament in the meantime, it would require Andrew Wilkie to return to his support for a Gillard led government and that’s not guaranteed.
The potential is one of massive disruption but may not be fatal to the government.
The ThermoNuclear Bomb
Kevin Rudd could cross the floor, resign from the ALP, shake hands with Malcolm Turnbull as he is unlikely to shake hands with Tony Abbott, remove his support for the Government and then the Government would be hung. An election would be necessary and for Julia Gillard, as the saying goes, “It’s all over Red Rover”!
Kevin Rudd would retain his popularity and probably be able to come back as the most popular independent ever in almost any marginal seat of his choosing. He would be seen as the ultimate saviour from the hatred the Australian people have for Julia Gillard and the government she leads.
Kevin Rudd would be remembered as a national hero of sorts.
As I said, this is all entirely hypothetical, but who knows what can happen in this crazy political climate ?
Nobody knows what will transpire tomorrow, most pundits seem to agree that Julia Gillard will win however win or lose, Kevin Rudd may have the last laugh.
Here is the profile of the Federal Seat of Griffith
Like this post? Subscribe to my RSS feed and get loads more!